Do Top Managers need a Crystal Ball?

DoTop Managers need a Crystal Ball?

(TheEffect of Effective Forecasting and Predicting on Top Managers at AbuDhabi National Hotels)

Abstract

CrytalBalls are significant for any organization and are good applicationsfor business optimization. Crytal balls are spreadsheet applicationsthat are designed to allow for forecasting, prediction, simulationand optimization. Crystal balls give the top management in business a clear way in which the risk can be assessed. Through the use ofCrytal balls the top management is able to make the right andtactical decisions on business goals. The decisions are made undervery unclear market situations with a number of challenges in themarket. InAbu Dhabi, the use of a Crystal Ball in its national hotel managementas a case, improves on the existing and used management models, withthe development of the predictive modeling tools. It further providesa superior calculation and optimization capabilities, by properlycombining the Crystal Ball with hotels decision optimizer, therefore,offering a version of Crystal Ball that is affordably priced todecision optimizers.

1.0Introduction

    1. Background to the Study

Thecompetitive nature in the business environment has become extreme asa result of Globalization. In the hotel industry, Globalization hasled to the increase in competition, therefore prompting for adoptionof approaches, which are adaptive in ensuring that the management ofthe hotel industry remains competitive, with its operations remainingstrategies for survival.

Inthe case of Abu Dhabi, managers in national hotels have complexitiesin management that comprise of planning, involving the ensuring that,proper execution of plans according to outlined schedule is donethey further have a responsibility in organizing, involving thecontrolling of the entire hotel spearheading staffing, by recruitingrequired personnel in the hotels coordinating hotel activities,which involve planning and organizing hotel activities for effectiveoperation of the hotels.

Inthe process of considering the major changes faced in the hotelbusiness environment today, factors as technology advancement,workforce demographic changes, customer expectations and preferences,changes, organization structures flattening, demand changespertaining the ways of business conduct need to be considered. Thiscalls for managers to consider these factors, due to the fact thatonly a few managers, get to understand customers` preferences as wellas suitable content strategies to apply for business development.

Topmanagers’ utilization of the crystal ball ensures attainment of afocus that is effective, pertaining employees’ energy, thereforeresulting to the pursuit of best business alternatives. Having anexample of a manager in charge of sales, the application of thepredictive lead, may enhance the business scoring. Having the hotelindustry based on customer management through service delivery, topmanagers need to have a measure of rating the quality of servicealongside the actual performance of the hotel aspects, with examplesof assignments, roles, tasks and even personnel.

1.2Statement of the Problem

Thebooming hotel industry as a casse in Abu Dhabi, has continuallythreatened of new entrants. As a matter of fact, top management innational hotels embrace Crystal Balls, as a way of cutting theirmarket position so as to gaining an edge over the competitors. Theeffects of crystal balls, lead to increase hotel turnover, henceconsidering the crystal ball as being essential tools for topmanagers, running the national hotels.

1.3Purpose of the Study

Thisstudy examines the appropriateness, significance, and possibleeffectiveness of crystal ball use in top management of nationalhotels, based in Abu Dhabi. In doing this, an extraction of therelationship between the use of a crystal ball in top management getsdetermined.

1.4Study Objectives

  1. To review of previous literacy on crystal ball use appropriateness, effectiveness and relevance in the integration of the hotel industry.

  2. To examine, establish and determine the appropriateness and relevance of crystal ball in top hotel management.

1.5Research Questions

Theneed to answer the question whether top managers at Abu Dhabi’snational hotels need a crystal ball, desired answers derived fromseveral questions, which explore diverse aspects of crystal use,within the hotel industry. These questions may include:

i) Is crystal ball use appropriate?

ii)How relevant is crystal ball use within the hotel industry in AbuDhabi?

iii)What is the impending effectiveness of crystal ball use in Abu Dhabi?

1.6Scope of the Study

Thestudy entirely got limited on establishing the effectiveness ofcrystal ball use through Forecastingand Predicting, amidst top national hotel managers in Adu Dhabi. Thiswas with regard to the performance of business before and after use,and if it would be recommendable to apply the crystal ball as a wayto facilitate business thrives in the complex business environment.

1.7Significance of the Study

  1. In top management within the hotel industry, the study outcome was to assist the various managements realize the impact of crystal ball in business forecasting and predicting.

  2. In the learning fraternity, the study aimed at deriving the factual relationships between crystal ball use and top management, for business thrive, by acting as a reference and a research area for other future studies.

  3. The study sought to find out the challenges affecting the crystal ball use in predicting and forecasting business development, alongside offering an opportunity for recommendations on strategies ensure the development of crystal ball effect, ineffective, relevant and appropriate manner.

2.0Literature Review

Aconcern over reviews of works, previous researched on got to beinvestigated. This was through, literature review of study variablesrelated to the crystal ball and management, within the hotelindustry. Different points of view by different authors were taken toaddress the need for crystal ball issue in top hotel management.

Competitionin the hotel industry has increased, as a result of globalization anddevelopment in technology. This has called upon top managers inorganizations to come up with innovative plans and practices toenable them develop the resilient ability of managing businessprocesses, in an effective and predictable manner (Goll &ampRasheed, 1997). Taking the case of top management in the hotelindustry globally, there has been the need to involve strategicdecision making processes that are primarily related to the businessin the long term goals in perspective.

Uncertaintiesand unpredictability tend to be common characteristic to beconsidered in the desire for strategic decision making process inbusiness (Eisenhardt, 1997). Being a challenge for the top managementwho ought to offer solutions to the challenges facing business andtools to enhance the management ability to predict managers maydesire to have the crystal ball as a model to facilitate thedevelopment.

InAbu Dhabi, uncertainty exists in the hotel industry. The uncertaintyinvolved, gets to be in economic development view that impact as aresult of the various economic, social, political and eventechnological factors, determined through the growth and developmentof the hotel industry (Rezidor, 2014).

Theapplication of tools and software for decision making, enable hotelsto manage better the uncertainty, which exist in the businessenvironment by having business intelligence, proper financialplanning and models that are predictive based, forecasting andpredicting on diverse approaches (Oracle,2008).As a matter of fact, the tools have helped hotels to take goodmanagerial decisions, needed by managers to develop business, throughunderstanding the past trends within the business and further,effectively anticipate the future (Eisenhardt, 1997).

Inattaining decisions and assumptions in business that is good, hotelshave followed and need to follow the three step approach. There is aneed to offer assumptions which are realistic, identify assumptionsthat are most influential and identify factors, which should becontrolled and leveraged against those which cannot be easilycontrolled (Goll &amp Rasheed, 1997). Through the predictivetechnique, modeling enhances the management process that is strategicthrough enhancing user confidence in the analytics regarded aspredictive, process of integrated modeling and reporting that isflexible.

Studiesunderline the significance of historical information, based onmanagement in making viable use of tools for predicting the futuremanagement strategic plans. Irrespective of the fact that the pasthas always repeated itself, creates the impression on the mostappropriate ways of getting to predict the future through carryingout an appropriate examination of the past.

Certainly,a relation with finances, research has underlined importanthistorical information alongside other business aspects, in making ofprojections that connected to the future (Schermerhorn, 2011). Anassessment of the hotel industry as revealed by bankers andaccountants who analyze projections on financial information,acknowledge the crystal ball importance by placing immense emphasison its use (Carlisle, 2004).

Itis noted to be significant for managers to undertake the recenttrends review in business for the purpose of coming up with apicture, which is clear of the possibilities, of future growth trendsas well as viable development ways. The use of forecasting inpredictions making, has been essential through the crystal ballleading to proper judgment (Gregory et al, 2001). As a matter offact, this has underlined the significance of aligning always theprojections and plans, with relevant existing market structuresalongside theories by obtaining expert opinion with a broadconsideration of diverse fields. Notably, historical information getsto be greatly useful in the future predictions making.

Forecastingand predicting in business, through crystal ball has been a tool forsuccess in most business operations. It has yielded effectively,through performance in operation and finance. In crystal ball, riskand financial performance analysis have been noted to be critical.Risk Analysis entails predictive modeling, forecasting, simulationand even optimization. This has helped in the analysis of diversescenarios and predicts outcomes of the future for the hotel industryby identifying the risk factors for their importance (Eisenhardt &ampZbaracki, 1992).

Analysisof financial performance is critical. It has helped managers inidentifying factors, which have financial performance impact, helpingthe hotel industry to make sound decisions in business, which arebased on a clear understanding of diverse variables affectingbusiness (Eisenhardt, 1997). In business, streamlining budgeting,planning and the processes of reporting based on forecastinganalysis, gets to improve the performance of business, throughenhancing the aspects of operations in business (Goll &amp Rasheed,1997).

Inthe case of top managers who have applied the crystal ball, therelationship amid forecasting and resource utilization enhanceseffective predicting and forecasting.This has been important in the focus on the utilization of resourcesmaximally to ensure returns are higher on investment. Resourceutilization that is effective includes the maximum use of financialresources, human resources, equipment, machinery, time and schedules(Eisenhardt &amp Zbaracki, 1992). Predicting use can help in theeffective evaluation of problems, which occurred in the past occursin the future and make plans effective towards overcoming the issues.

Assessingthe United Arab Emirate economy has offered a baseline for the needof the crystal ball for top managers, considering the fact that ithas been well facilitating the performance on the economic front,with the year 2014 serving as an example as well as performanceexpectations for the future, meant to improve. The countryparticipation in the trade expo further, provides ground for thebooming of the national hotels in the hospitality industry.

Thehotel industry in Abu Dhabi, has demonstrated a strong performance,revealed through the 2014 third quarter, with an occupancy rate thatgets close to 100 percent with the profitability in the hotelsgetting quite high (GulfToday, 2014). Considering hotel brands asMarriott Hotel that launched an effective expansion plans to offerhigh demands, has been noted to be profitable, evident through thegrown numbers of visitors annually.

Reportsfrom calculations drawn from WTTC-World Travel and Tourism Councilreveal the fact that, investing in the tourism industry has increasedsince 2010, from 10.3 billion to 2013, investments ranging at 15.7billion USD, the GCC-Gulf Cooperation Council region according toList (2014). In comparing Abu Dhabi to Dubai, Abu Dhabi’s hotelsector seems to be smaller with less dynamic.

However,the tourists’ numbers in Abu Dhabi have significantly been on anincrease since 2013 a percentage estimated to be about 18 percent toa figure of about 2.8 million. According to the Tourism and CulturalAuthority of Abu Dhabi, the most recent estimates, indicate hoteloccupancy to have been on an increase, with a percentage of about 14percent (List, 2014).

Hotelindustry being an integral part of the hospitality industry,predicting and forecasting application has been effective. However,challenges in plans for the owners of hotels have been facedregarding the accuracy in predicting hotel demands, based onuncertain views that emerge on the international l scale affectingdevelopment with example of Ebola, SARS and even terrorism thatsubstantially impact on the travel industry, which serves directlythe hotel industry (Perkins, 2013).

InAbu Dhabi therefore, hotel demand gets to be affected, alongsideperformance dictating performance with variables and factors and suchas hotel size, location, brand, quality, pricing strategies and levelof service (Perkins, 2013).

Therefore,in this case, Crystal ball if applied to the top management ofhotels, it will help in the predicting accurately of trendsanticipated in the future in the hotel industry. This will makebusiness boom as in the case ofAbu Dhabi, which has taken by storm the market, both in terms ofhotel and accommodation service delivery.

  1. Methodology

Themethodology used in deducting inferential information with regard tocrystal ball use, effectively focused on the hotel industry in AbuDhabi. The research study used a realistic design inclusive of aqualitative methodology in research. The methodology used in theresearch, aimed at providing answers to critical questions such as‘how,’ ‘what is,” and ‘what was’ according to Glaser &ampStrauss (2013).

    1. Data collection

Theconsideration of literature is an essential component in the studythrough the collection of primary and secondary data in research.Claims by Bayat and Fox (2007) are that various data types’collection methods get to include surveys,open-ended questions, focus groups, interviewskey informant and administration of questionnaires.Extensively, secondarydata collected was from statistics official,annual reports from hotels and related firms, businessjournals, industrywebsite,technical reports, reference books and review of literature articles.

    1. Target population

Throughstratified sampling of national hotels in Abu Dhabi, the targetpopulation of 40, made up of individuals who professionally got tooccupy managerial positions considered to be top in the NationalHotels and had the experience on the impacts that crystal ball poseseither indirectly or directly to the business.

3.3Samplingstrategy

Theresearch study conducted utilizing the simple random samplingstrategy. In this case, questionnaires got to be managed in thatevery person got an equal chance of getting selected. The total of 40respondents offered a true reflection pertaining crystal ball use andits impact on top managers in National Hotels based in Abu Dhabi.

Additionally,both probability and non probability sampling techniques got used.Another form of sampling, which helped conduct sampling in thisresearch project, was the network sampling this was efficienttowards accessing the target population, which was diverselyorganized considering the spatial population outlay. The participantswho involved top managers of national hotels in Abu Dhabi, suggestedfurther participants. Purposive sampling further was an importantsampling method, whereby given target groups were contactedconsidering the fact that they had relevant information needed.

3.4 Research procedures/Steps

WDay

Identification of respondents

Data Collection

Using questionnaires

Data sorting and Coding

Data analysis and Interpretation

Using SPSS

Linking analyzed data with literature review

Report printing and binding

Report submission

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

3.5Analysis of Results Plan

Theanalysis of data used statistical methods, which were based onhypotheticals and theories. The research basis was on the researchsubject: “DoTop Managers need a Crystal Ball?”Emphasizing on, “TheEffect of Effective Predicting and Forecasting on Top Managers, atAbu Dhabi National Hotels.”Considering these variables, crystal ball impact, got termed to betheindependent variable, whereas the dependent variable got to be thetop managers’ performance. The research study examined these twovariables the correlation, through deducting the descriptive,experimental design, used as an independent variable to determine thecorrelation however, it was not manipulated as recommended to theexperimenter (Shields, Patricia, &amp Tajalli, 2009).

Inanalyzing the data, the analysis included the transforming of thecollected data into representations, which make meaning through toidentifying the meaningfulness in the entire research project. Theanalysis was aided through the help of SPSS software, generatingcharts and diagrams that are easily created to offer support intrying to the reach the research conclusion. The diverse literaturereview aspects got linked to reports quantitative findings as a wayto identify the conformity of the findings in relation to previousresearches.

4.0Results

Thischapter presents results and findings from the research. The primaryresearch results were obtained from analysis of data collected usingthe questionnaire outlined in appendix (1.). As explained in theprevious chapter, secondary research was necessitated by the need toprovide some contextual aspects and historical data on the subjectunder investigation. Hence the secondary research will compliment theprimary research by providing contextual evidence from previousstudies.

have you heardabout using forescasting for strategic decision making and planning

How often is crystal ball (predicting and forescating functions) used in your organization?

At what level/s is strategic prediction is used in your organization

The main reasons why you or your organization uses forecasting

the impact of forecasting on the operational efficiency of the organization can be best described as:

The impact of crystal ball on the financial perfomance of yuor organisation

N

Valid

40

40

40

40

40

40

Missing

0

0

0

0

0

0

Frequency&nbspTable

Have you heard about using forecasting for strategic decision making and planning

Frequency

Percent

Valid Percent

Cumulative Percent

Valid

Yes

40

100.0

100.0

100.0

How often is crystal ball (predicting and forescating functions) used in your organization?

Frequency

Percent

Valid Percent

Cumulative Percent

Valid

Occasionally

28

70.0

70.0

70.0

Often

12

30.0

30.0

100.0

Total

40

100.0

100.0

At what level/s is strategic prediction is used in your organization

Frequency

Percent

Valid Percent

Cumulative Percent

Valid

Top management

6

15.0

15.0

15.0

Manager Level

15

37.5

37.5

52.5

Executive level

5

12.5

12.5

65.0

Top Management and manager level

3

7.5

7.5

72.5

Top Management and executive level

4

10.0

10.0

82.5

All the levels

7

17.5

17.5

100.0

Total

40

100.0

100.0

The main reasons why you or your organization uses forecasting

Frequency

Percent

Valid Percent

Cumulative Percent

Valid

Decision Making

21

52.5

52.5

52.5

Data Analysis

7

17.5

17.5

70.0

Reliability

3

7.5

7.5

77.5

Convinience/Ease of use

1

2.5

2.5

80.0

Low cost

3

7.5

7.5

87.5

Decision making and Data analysis

5

12.5

12.5

100.0

Total

40

100.0

100.0

the impact of forecasting on the operational efficiency of the organization can be best described as:

Frequency

Percent

Valid Percent

Cumulative Percent

Valid

High

24

60.0

60.0

60.0

Medium

8

20.0

20.0

80.0

Low

6

15.0

15.0

95.0

No Impact

2

5.0

5.0

100.0

Total

40

100.0

100.0

The impact of crystal ball on the financial perfomance of yuor organisation

Frequency

Percent

Valid Percent

Cumulative Percent

Valid

Positive

34

85.0

85.0

85.0

Negative

1

2.5

2.5

87.5

No Change

5

12.5

12.5

100.0

Total

40

100.0

100.0

Bar&nbspChart

5.0Discussion and Recommendations

Theuse of crystal balls in the different organizations is occasionalshowing the importance of these prediction and forecasting functionsto the organizations. The use of crystal balls in forecasting mainlyassists in decision making process concerning production schedules inthe organizations, personnel deliverability and long term strategicplanning in the organizations (Martino, 1993). The unpredictablenature of the hotel industry explains the reason for the occasionaluse of crystal balls in the organizations. The availability of pastinformation and trends in the hotel sector is crucial in ensuringproper forecasting. The occasional use of crystal balls is supportedby the fact that the organizations make short-term, medium term andlong term forecasts. The short-term mainly helps in personnelscheduling, production as well as transportation. There is also needfor the forecasting of demands in the organizations as it helps intelling the different requirements of the organizations (Martino,1993). The medium term forecasts of the hotels and organizations ingeneral assist in determination of the future resource requirementsso as to purchase raw materials, be able to purchase machinery andequipment. The long term forcasts in the organizations are essentialin strategic planning which take account of opportunities that arisearound the market place as well as the environmental factors(Martino, 1993). Therefore, the occasional use of crytall balls inorganizations is justified.

Fromthe results most organizations catrry out their prediction at themanager’s level with just a few doing it at the the top managementlevel. The level in which the prediction is done is mainly dictatedby the organization structure and the responsibilities bestowed oneach level of the structure. However, a majority of hotels in AbuDhabi carry out their prediction at the manager’s level. Often,managers are mandated with the duty of making strategic decisions inregards to the problems and opportunities that their organizationsface (Dino, Riley, &amp Yatrakis, 1982). At the managers’s levels,most of the predictions are done by the human resources departmentand the risk analysis department depending on the nature of theorganization’s structure.

Themajority of respondents alluded to the fact that their organizationsuse the predictions for decision making and a few for data analysis.The reliability of the crytall balls and their low cost explained thereason why they are employed in both decision making and dataanlaysis. Decision making is done at three different levels longterm, mid-term and short term. The short-term mainly helps inpersonnel scheduling, production as well as transportation. There isalso need for the forecasting of demands in the organizations as ithelps in telling the different requirements of the organizations. Themedium term forecasts of the hotels and organizations in generalassist in determination of the future resource requirements so as topurchase raw materials, be able to purchase machinery and equipment.The long term forcasts in the organizations are essential instrategic planning which take account of opportunities that arisearound the market place as well as the environmental factors.

Fromthe organizations, the use of forecasting has led to an increase inoperational efficiency of the organizations with most respondentsaffirming that the efficiency levels have been high.

Amajority of the respondents affirmed that the use of crytall ballshad a positive impact on the financial performance of theorganization. The use of crystal balls helps in intergartingfinancial and operational planning processes as well as provide amore deeper look into the operations of a business. The impact isoften through the tightly integrated financial and operationalplanning models that are used by organizations (Thompson &amp Gates,2007).

Throughthese crytal balls, the organizations are able to meet theirimmediate financial planning, the budget needs as well as theforcasting needs. In meeting these needs, the crytal balls provides aplatform for cross-functional expansion in the future as well as asystem that supports an automated integration (Thompson &amp Gates,2007). Through the crystal balls there is quick and efficientplanning carried out in the organizations. These efficient planningare carried out in the areas of head count, salary as well ascompesantion across the business or organization.

Additionally,the crystal balls enables the organizations to effectively plan forthe existing and new capital assets, maintence as well as transfersand capital depricaition or wearing out that occur in theorganizations. As this planning is done, analysis on their impact onincome, balance sheet and cash flow is also carried out efficiently.

Thepositive impact on financial performace is evident as the crystalballs assist in supporting financial planning and ensuring a forcastfor contract, capital and indirect projects that are done by theorganizations. Through the use of crytal balls such as Hyperionplanning and Budgeting, the organizations are able to comfortablymanage their current budgets as well as the projected budgets(Thompson &amp Gates, 2007). This is often done through the use ofcomplex models that relate different employee positions and theexpenditures that they incur using their human capital management andthe general ledger system. In ensuring that there is effectivefinancial planning, the crytal balls helps managers to fully budgetfor their balance sheet as well as the encoiuntered profit and lossesincurred by the organization as captured in the statement.

Throughdifferent crytal balls design, the managers and the executives are ina position to fully understand the overall impacts of alternativestrategies employed by the corporate organizations (Thompson &ampGates, 2007). This is done when the finance experts focus on tryingthe applicability of alternative strategies, coming up withcontingency plans and understanding the impact of the adoptedstrategies as well as the plans on the long term performance of thecompany.

Additionally,some facets of crytal balls helps in understanding in the variousfactors affecting risk as well as calculate the chances of meetingthe business plans (Thompson &amp Gates, 2007). Thus, through thismove, organizations are in a position of making sound decisions thatenables them to deliver on the strategic goals and ultimately gain acompetitive edge over its competitors.

Fromthe above discussions, it is evident that the organizations needcrytal balls and it is very important for managers in forcasting,predictive modeling, simulation and business optimization. They givethe top management in business an insight, which is unparalleledconcerning factors that are critical with the affecting risk. CrystalBalls enable the making of right and tactical decisions on givenbusiness objectives towards gaining the competitive periphery, undermost uncertain conditions in the market. Thus, for an increase inproductivity of the Abu Dhabi Hotels, it is evident that the managersneed to use crytal balls.

References

Bayat,M., S. &amp Fox, W. (2007). AGuide to managing research.New York: Juta.

Carlisle,P. R. (2004). ‘‘Transferring, Translating, and Transforming: AnIntegrative Framework for Managing Knowledge Across Boundaries.’’OrganizationScience15(5): 555–568.

Dino,R. N., Riley, D. E., &amp Yatrakis, P. G. (1982). The role offorecasting in corporate strategy: the Xerox experience. Journal ofForecasting, 1(4), 335-348.

Eisenhardt,K. &amp Zbaracki, M. (1992). Strategic Decision Making. StrategicManagement Journal,13, 17-37.

Eisenhardt,K.M. (1997). Conflict and strategic choice: How top management teamsdisagree, CaliforniaManagement Review,39 (2), 42-63.

Glaser,B, &amp Strauss, A. (2013). The discovery of grounded theory:Strategies for qualitative research. Chicago, IL: Aldine Transaction.

Goll,I. &amp Rasheed, A. (1997). Rational Decision-Making and FirmPerformance: The Moderating Role of Environment.” StrategicManagement Journal, 18 (7), 583-591.

Gregory,A., &amp Institute of Public Relations. (2001).&nbspPlanningand managing public relations campaigns.London: Kogan Page.

GulfToday.(2014, August 23). UAE’shotel industry performing well.Retrieved fromGulfbase.com:http://www.gulfbase.com/news/uae-s-hotel-industry-performing-well/266320

List,C. (2014, August 12). BILLIONSOF INVESTMENTS IN THE HOSPITALITY AT THE GULF REGION – NEW STRATEGYIN QATAR – OMAN HAS A CONTINUOUS GROWTH – PERSPECTIVE IN BAHRAIN ANDKUWAIT UNCERTAIN.Retrieved fromTophotelprojects.com:http://www.tophotelprojects.com/en/more-and-more-hotels-dubai-and-mecca

Martino,J. P. (1993). Technological forecasting for decision making.McGraw-Hill, Inc..

Oracle.(2008). DrivingStrategic Planning with Predictive Modeling.CA: Oracle.

Perkins,T. (2013, December 27). Forecastinghotel demand – a look into the crystal ballRetrieved from The Globe and Mail:http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/property-report/forecasting-hotel-demand-a-look-beyondthe-crystal-ball/article16089379/

Rezidor.(2014). Rezidortakes its 2014 Annual Business Conference in Abu Dhabi.Retrieved from Rezidor.com:http://www.rezidor.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=205430&ampp=irol-newsArticle&ampID=1915411

Schermerhorn,J. R. (2011).&nbspIntroductionto management.Hoboken, NJ: Wiley.

Shields,Patricia, &amp Tajalli, H. (2009). Intermediate Theory: The MissingLink in Successful Student Scholarship. Journalof Public Affairs Education,313-334.

Thompson,F., &amp Gates, B. L. (2007). Betting on the future with a cloudycrystal ball? How financial theory can improve revenue forecastingand budgets in the states. Public Administration Review, 67(5),825-836.

6.0Appendix

QUESTIONNAIREON THE NEED OF CRYSTAL BALL TO MANAGERS

Dearsir/madam

Iam undertaking a research project to determine whether top managersneed a crystal ball. The case study is effect of effectiveforecasting and predicting on top managers at Abu Dhabi NationalHotels. To this end, I kindly request you to complete the followingshort questionnaire, regarding the impacts of e-commerce within yourorganization. It should take no longer than 10 minutes of your time.Your response is of utmost importance to us.

Pleasedo not enter your name or contact details on the questionnaire. Itremains anonymous. Kindly return the questionnaire to me in thepostage paid return envelope on or before 2ndNovember, 2014.

Questionnaire

ProfessionalProfile

OrganizationName…………………… Designation………………………

Numberof Employees…………………………… Annual Turnover…………………

SurveyQuestions:

  1. Have you heard about using forecasting for strategic decision making and planning?

Yes No

  1. How often is Crystal ball (predicting and forecasting functions) used in your organization?

Never Occasionally Often

  1. At what level/s is strategic prediction is used in your organization? Tick all applicable.

TopManagement Manager Level Executive Level

  1. The main reasons why you or your organization uses forecasting include (Tick all applicable.):

DecisionMakingData Analysis Reliability Convenience/Ease of use

LowCost Other reasons …………………………………………

  1. The impact of forecasting on the operational efficiency of the organization can be best described as:

High Medium LowNo impact

  1. The impact of crystal ball on the financial performance of your organization is:

PositiveNegativeNo change